Inflation ( CCPI)1.7% (June 2024)
GDP5.3% (1Q 2024)
Unemployment4.3% (4Q 2023)
3M T-Bill Rate9.14%
12M T-Bill Rate9.95%
2Y T-Bond Rate10.10%/ 10.20%
4Y T-Bond Rate11.60% / 11.70%
Reserves $5.6Bn (June 2024)
Cum. Trade Deficit $2,180 Mn (May 2024 cumulative)
Cum. Fiscal DeficitLKR 361Bn (April 2024)

Majority expect LKR to deprecate bit more and settle between 320 to 340 by end of October

Opinion pollsOct 1, 2023
Majority expect LKR to deprecate bit more and settle between 320 to 340 by end of October

Due to the seasonal damage to import, sentiment damage due to the delay of the IMF staff-level agreement along with the USD 311Mn second tranche may put pressure exchange to deprecate from the current level of 322-325.

At the same time, the foreign currency inflow from tourism and worker remittance is expected to improve further and help LKR to stabled and control the magnitude of the depreciation.

The current economy does not have the capacity to import large goods like three years back as domestic demand is been slashed and buying power is lower.


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