Inflation ( CCPI)1.7% (June 2024)
GDP5.3% (1Q 2024)
Unemployment4.3% (4Q 2023)
3M T-Bill Rate9.14%
12M T-Bill Rate9.95%
2Y T-Bond Rate10.10%/ 10.20%
4Y T-Bond Rate11.60% / 11.70%
USD/LKR303/304
Reserves $5.6Bn (June 2024)
Cum. Trade Deficit $2,180 Mn (May 2024 cumulative)
Cum. Fiscal DeficitLKR 361Bn (April 2024)

Strong dollar globally may weaken the LKR further

Exchange RateOct 4, 2023
Strong dollar globally may weaken the LKR further

The inflation-adjusted high-interest rate has strengthened the USD against its peers as the FED expects to raise the policy rate at least by 0.25% soon. Flowing investments to US debts that offer higher returns will target US currency. LKR may feel pressure despite domestic FX flows improving marginally.

Growing imports and seasonal demand along with economic recovery will demand FX as Sri Lanka still imports substantial amounts of essential items. CBSL may not have much room to defend the LKR as IMF has already warned of slow progress in reserve building.

Disclaimer

Charts represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated and it is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any issuer or security in particular. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective.

The information presented does not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transactions costs, which may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy or investment decision. This document contains general information only and does not take into account an individual’s financial circumstances. An assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial advisor before making an investment decisions.