Inflation ( CCPI)1.3% (Sep 2023)
GDP-3.1% (2Q 2023)
Unemployment4.7% (1Q 2023)
3M T-Bill Rate17.42%
12M T-Bill Rate13.30%
2Y T-Bond Rate14.60%/ 15.00%
4Y T-Bond Rate14.50% / 14.90%
Reserves $3.60Bn (Aug 2023)
Cum. Trade Deficit $2,623 Mn (July 2023 cumulative)
Cum. Fiscal DeficitLKR 1,243 Bn (June 2023)

Public expect no change in the benched mark interest rate at monetary policy statement tomorrow

Opinion pollsMar 2, 2023
Public expect no change in the benched mark interest rate at monetary policy statement tomorrow

The T-bill rates have fallen marginally while AWPR has fallen by around 1%. The last few T-bill auctions give mixed signals on raising the target funds while CBSL prints 66Bn additional. Inflation fell by 6.6% from the end of 2022. It witnessed that it is too early for CBSL to enter into a loosening monetary policy stance.

The gap between the 364Days T-bill rate and Inflation too has narrowed from 28% to 23% at end of Feb 2023. Yet there is no sufficient evidence of slowing down the government borrowings despite government revenue improvement. Hence borrowing pressure generated by the government is yet to be witnessed.

Credit to the private sector from banks continues to fall, which will results improvement in LKR liquidity in the money market. This may help to reduce the T-Bill rates in the primary and secondary markets during the coming weeks.


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